RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat’s Statement Sparks Controversy

Jaipur.

The statement made by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Chief Mohan Bhagwat in Nagpur, advocating for couples to have three children, has triggered a nationwide political uproar. Opposition parties, particularly the INDIA alliance, are criticizing this statement and politicizing the issue with various comments. However, none of these political leaders have addressed the actual context of Bhagwat’s remarks. According to government data on Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the fertility rates of Hindus, Sikhs, and Jains have declined, while the fertility rate among Muslims has increased. To understand why Bhagwat made such a statement and what TFR implies, we must delve deeper into these concerns and their implications.

What Did the RSS Chief Say?

On December 1, 2024, during a public event in Nagpur, Mohan Bhagwat remarked, "A decline in population is a matter of concern. Modern population science states that when a society’s TFR falls below 2.1, that society faces the risk of extinction, not due to external factors, but due to its own demographic trends. Many languages and communities have already disappeared from the world due to this issue."

He further added, "The TFR should not drop below 2.1. Our national population policy, framed in 1998 or 2002, also mentions that a community’s TFR should not fall below this level. To sustain a society, a minimum of two or ideally three children per couple is essential. This is what population science advises."

Political Reactions to Bhagwat’s Statement

Bhagwat’s statement has become a political flashpoint. Leaders from the opposition, including Asaduddin Owaisi, the Congress party, and its allies like the Samajwadi Party, have condemned the statement, labeling it controversial. These leaders have avoided mentioning population control laws that could be uniformly applied to all communities, including Muslims. Their silence on this issue reveals their intent to ensure that the Muslim population remains unaffected while other religious groups experience a demographic decline.

Contrary to the opposition’s claims, Bhagwat’s statement was not politically motivated but rooted in legitimate demographic concerns, supported by India’s official statistics.

India’s Population and Its Challenges

India, with over 1.4 billion people, has surpassed all other nations to become the most populous country in the world. For decades, there has been debate over the need for population control laws. Discussions have also included proposals to exclude families with more children from availing government benefits. Amid this context, Bhagwat’s emphasis on maintaining a sustainable TFR aligns with long-term demographic stability.

Understanding Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR is a key indicator of population growth. It represents the average number of children a woman aged 15-49 will bear during her lifetime. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, necessary to maintain a stable population. A TFR below this threshold leads to a declining population over time.

India’s latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2019-20 indicates that the national TFR is currently 1.99, below the replacement level. This is a cause for concern as it suggests a future decline in population growth. A closer look reveals a more alarming trend: except for Muslims, no other religious group in India has a TFR above 2.1.

Demographic Data: Hindu, Sikh, and Jain Fertility Declines

Since the 1990s, India’s TFR has dropped by 41%, primarily due to liberalization, education, and increased awareness. Hindus, Sikhs, and Jains now have TFR levels below 2. Meanwhile, the Muslim community's TFR remains higher at 2.36, above the replacement level.

Global Examples of TFR Decline

Countries like Japan, South Korea, and China are already grappling with the consequences of falling TFRs.

• South Korea: With a TFR of 0.7, South Korea has the lowest fertility rate globally. The government has introduced measures like increasing paid paternity leave from 90 to 120 days and providing monthly financial support of ₹63,500 for households with children under one year old. Despite these efforts, South Korea's population has dropped from 51.8 million in 2018 to 51.6 million today.

• Japan: Japan’s TFR stands at 1.26, and one-third of its population is aged 65 or older. The declining population has led to labor shortages and economic challenges. Japanese policymakers warn that without an improvement in birth rates, the nation could face extinction.

• China: Recognizing the issue, China abandoned its one-child policy in 2016. However, even after this policy change, the country’s population has been shrinking for the past two years.

Why Bhagwat’s Statement Is Relevant

Examining these global examples underscores the urgency of Bhagwat’s concerns. If India does not address this issue proactively, it could face challenges like labor shortages, an aging population, and threats to national security. Bhagwat’s statement serves as an early warning for policymakers and society to take preventive measures.

Conclusion

Rather than dismissing the RSS Chief’s remarks, political leaders and the public should engage in meaningful discussions about India’s demographic future. The examples of countries like Japan and South Korea illustrate the dire consequences of neglecting population trends. Bhagwat’s emphasis on maintaining a sustainable TFR aligns with ensuring India’s demographic and economic stability in the years to come.