### Political Shifts Expected After Rajasthan By-Election Results*
Gopendra Bhatt
Udaipur, : The upcoming by-election results for seven assembly seats in Rajasthan, set to be declared on 23 November, are expected to bring significant political changes across the state. These results will have far-reaching consequences for both the BJP and Congress, as well as regional parties.
Following the by-election outcomes, the reshuffling of Chief Minister Bhajan Lal's Cabinet and potential political appointments are likely. However, these changes may occur either before or after the Rising Rajasthan Global Investment Summit 2024, scheduled for 9–11 December.
Both the BJP and Congress have claimed victory in all seven seats, while regional parties such as the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLTP) believe they will retain their strongholds. The BJP anticipates securing additional seats, including Salumber, Chaurasi, Ramgarh, Jhunjhunu, Dausa, and Uniyara-Deoli, while political observers predict that Congress may win one or none, giving BJP a potential four or five-seat gain.
If the BJP performs well, Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma may be given the authority to restructure his Cabinet and make political appointments. Additionally, the appointment of officials in vacant governmental positions could also occur. BJP’s new state president, Madan Rathore, may also oversee organizational changes. However, regional and caste considerations will need to be factored in, and the approval of the central leadership will be required.
On the other hand, if the BJP’s performance falls short, it will not affect the overall majority in the state assembly, but the reputations of CM Bhajan Lal Sharma, state president Madan Rathore, senior ministers like Dr. Kirori Lal Meena, and others could suffer. This might result in a Cabinet reshuffle, potentially leading to some ministers losing their positions. A strong showing by the BJP could also lead to Dr. Meena's promotion and a further consolidation of Sharma’s political influence.
For Congress, disappointing results could exacerbate internal conflicts. The absence of key leaders, such as former CM Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, from active campaigning has raised questions about the party’s strategies. If Congress loses seats like Dausa, Jhunjhunu, Ramgarh, and Uniyara-Deoli, it could severely impact Sachin Pilot's reputation, especially in Eastern Rajasthan. Furthermore, this could also harm the standing of MPs Murari Lal Meena and Harish Meena, along with traditional political families like the Sheeshram Olas in Jhunjhunu and the Zubair Khan family in Ramgarh.
In the southern tribal areas, if Congress fails to secure second place in any of the constituencies, it may face a severe crisis in Mewar and Vagad regions. The rise of the BAP party and its influence in the adjoining areas of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh is already becoming a major concern for both Congress and BJP in these tribal regions. The party’s demand for a Bhil Pradesh could also evolve into a larger national issue.
Another incident that has garnered attention is the unfortunate event in Uniyara-Deoli, where an independent candidate slapped a duty SDM, which has sparked discussions nationwide.
Overall, the results of the Rajasthan by-elections are likely to have lasting political implications for the BJP, Congress, and regional parties. The future direction of Rajasthan’s political landscape is poised for significant shifts.
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